Brexit: A large variety of scenarios is still possible
by David Fleschen
The following scenarios are still possible:
Hard Brexit - No Deal
The harsh reality: on 29/03/2019 all relations with the EU would be cut. The goods traffic would succumb to the supply and also with food from Spain, the Netherlands, South America, since almost everything is handled via Rotterdam. The pound would repeatedly depreciate and exports collapse. Emergency solution: Emergency agreements. All in all, according to the current state: quite a probable possible outcome.
Exit from Brexit
From a legal point of view, this is possible according to the European Court of Justice. But: There are too many actors who act in the background on the crucial threads of Brexit. Probability: low.
A second referendum
Against a secont referendum speak close schedules. If the exit date were postponed, Plan B could take hold by leaving Britain in the European Economic Area and, in addition, adopting a customs union with the EU, analogous to the "Norway Plus" model. Extreme forces do not want this, because while duties remain but no say in Britain is in it. Probability: low.
Theresa May is trying to renegotiate because she can not count on the much-needed votes from the DUP. The status of Northern Ireland holds enormous explosives, as many interests and actors participate. So it's not all about the EU. It is therefore unlikely that anything substantial will be achieved in May's renewed negotiations. The EU repeatedly stressed that it did not want to open the Pandora's box.
No-confidence vote against Theresa May - Prime Minister Fall - New elections
At least 48 MEPs are required. They seem to exist. A vote against May thus seems likely.After all the back and forth of the past few weeks and months, it is not unlikely that British voters will turn to the left. All previous negotiations are then in limbo and everything is conceivable: From resignation from Brexit to No Deal. The exit date remains. Probability: high
Even top British politicians like Dominik Raab, a former Brexit minister, do not outline the scope and depth of Brexit when he admitted he underestimated the border problem on the English Channel. Many interests, including international ones, affect the UK. The welfare of the British people and the economy is not the first priority, up to the isolation of Great Britain. A rational approach and progress would be desirable. This has not been shown in the past. It is to avoid worse, come to half-silk solutions and interim solutions. It is unlikely that these solutions will be far-sighted, balanced and sustainable.
What can the economy do?
The German "Denkhaus" academy has developed its own format, which means that companies affected by Brexit can quickly and strategically arrive at individual solutions. For example, supply chains, availability, storage capacities, logistics and distribution are put to the test for producers, as are sales prospects, currency fluctuations and IT requirements. For each company applies: staff (EU citizens and EU workers), insurance, investment, civil rights, etc. Special to look at: Ltd companies, UK accountants, prohibitions, restrictions, permits, standards and standards, taxes.
The topics are worked through in scenarios and based on the framework parameters and then formulated in solution approaches. Unlike with checklists, scenarios are used to consider individual alternatives that enable better solutions.
Source and grafic: Denkhaus