US-China trade talks cause little optimism

by David Fleschen

Today, US-China trade talks are continuing in Washington, which has become more explosive following US President Trump's announcement that tomorrow he will raise import duties on Chinese goods. News about the course of talks may be the most important driver of metal prices today and tomorrow. The market participants have become very cautious, there is hardly any optimism left. The Asian stock markets are therefore under pressure, which also has a negative impact on metal prices. The losses of the metals in Shanghai are greater than those of their London counterparts. Copper is trading just above $ 6,100 a ton. On the other hand, weaker data on new lending in China are having an additional burden this morning.

Yesterday, the International Nickel Study Group (INSG) was the first of the industry associations to publish updated estimates of the nickel market. According to this, the supply deficit is expected to amount to 84 thousand tons this year (after a revised deficit of 146 thousand tons last year). But the deficit should be much higher than expected at the autumn meeting. Because the INSG has raised its demand forecast for 2019 strongly (to + 5.8%). But as supply is expected to increase (+ 9.2%), the deficit will decline accordingly. In light of the trade dispute, yesterday's INSG data was little more than a marginal note.
Source: Commerzbank Research, Photo: Fotolia

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